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Figuring out the next step

One step beyond the high school years is where things really get interesting for cross country development in the U.S.

Over the years I’ve written several articles for various publications pointing out the staggering attrition rate we see in the oldest junior ranks. A guesstimate is that we are seeing up to 95-98 percent of graduating high school seniors drop out of the competitive cross country ski world the spring after their final high school ski race. Assuming I’m right, that is a brutal blow to the sport not only in terms of developing elite athletes, but also in terms of just maintaining a strong base of young adult energy at the recreational and citizen racing levels as well.

For those that do survive the jump out of high school, college skiing has been -- and remains -- the overwhelming dominant force in keeping competitive flames alive for skiers in the 18-23 age range. But college skiing is not a universal force in the snow regions the way junior programs tend to be. In a good year, there may be as few as 400-450 college racers at U.S. colleges, spread across an entire continent. And this total is divided between varsity NCAA skiing and club-based USCSA (formerly NCSA) programs with a staggering diversity in funding, coaching and snow access.

I’ve described in past writing how many collegiate cross country ski club programs have been lost over the past 20 years. The U.S. may now have just half the number of collegiate skiers today compared to the late ‘80s. That massive loss flies in the face of what is probably a doubling of junior skier numbers over the same period. I’ve said many times how big a loss that has been for the overall health of cross country skiing, not only at the competitive level, but in literally all areas -- recreation, industry, media, general public support, you name it.

Losing so many skiers out of high school, combined with collegiate energy being spread so thin (as well as few other viable alternatives in the 18-23 age range), is arguably the single biggest manmade block to not only improving U.S. elite competitive standards in future years, but keeping our overall sport fresh and healthy.

Is there any good news here? Yes there is.

For starters, the U.S. Ski Team has again put a healthy amount of weight on development of late and there are a dozen or so promising skiers that are being supported in some way by the national program. Where talented skiers can combine USST support with college or club support, the net package is pretty darn good. In some cases, it is very competitive with European skiers in the same development stage.

Clubs (local or regional) are also taking a progressively important role in what happens with development of skiers in the critical 18-23 year range. Kikkan Randall’s historic World Cup victory this season was as much a product of the long years of club support from Anchorage’s Alaska Pacific University (APU) Nordic than the more recent efforts of the national program. With as many as a half-dozen non-collegiate U.S. elite clubs now focused on young adults, far more athletes can be kept “in the game,” even if they don’t fit traditional collegiate programs or, having recently graduated, need just a bit more time to really push the elite ceiling.

The bottom line that seems to be increasingly accepted around the elite cross country skiing community is that, although nearly everyone agrees that collegiate skiing is a wonderful thing, it is equally true that having more options during and after the college years is necessary for the U.S. to consistently produce internationally competitive athletes.

This is illustrated by the fact that three of the four U.S. Ski Team athletes that are skiing at a “top tier” World Cup level right now have taken a distinctly non-traditional approach to post-H.S. education. Yet it is also undeniable that those elite athletes were all pushed to the top by athletes that came from a variety of development backgrounds -- U.S. Ski Team development, club development, NCAA colleges and USCSA colleges.

The best of all worlds, then, is to have as much strength and depth in all these areas as possible. Yet the big challenge for the future is the sustainability of these same vital “cross country finishing vehicles” in a very uncertain world. 

Both the national program, as well as the various club programs, will be severely tested in coming years to sustain support levels. Costs will invariably increase in the face of climate worries, rising energy costs and general economic uncertainties. Given the sheer cost of travel alone, elite cross country skiing development is an enormously expensive proposition in the best of times. These costs are not likely to decrease. Stability in funding is one key, but so is innovative and daring choices in the elite community that will conserve costs while maximizing return.

Sustainability also hinges on improving the equation out of high school, while creating innovative new ways to integrate colleges into the competitive development mix. Again, Anchorage’s APU Nordic deserves credit for being a national leader in providing a hybrid college-elite development program. Although very difficult to create, hybrid programs like APU are unquestionably going to play a huge future role in keeping more talent in the sport after high school.

Traditional college teams are also likely to face interesting pressures in coming years. Snow worries and increasing travel costs could easily wear down enthusiasm within athletic departments for full throttle NCAA teams. We have so few that a few losses in the future could potentially escalate into a total collegiate meltdown. I don’t see changes coming quickly, but it is foolish to think that it could never happen (cross country ski alumni beware...and get your lobbying skills sharpened up!). 

Regardless of how all these issues ultimately turn out, I’ll end as I started. There's a lot more going on that is right than wrong in the world of youth, juniors and young adult skiing. We’ve got a whole lot of kids out skiing and a whole lot of caring people watching over them. 

Maybe in the end that’s all that really matters anyways.